Illustration: TBS.
Climate change is the biggest disaster in the world now. It affects all regions in different ways. The North and South glaciers are melting very rapidly. According to NASA, the Antarctic ice sheet is melting at an average rate of about 150 billion tons per year, while the Greenland ice sheet is melting at an average rate of about 270 billion tons per year, which is gradually causing sea level rise. Another source says that by 2100, more than a third of the world's ice will melt, with dire consequences.
Already, some regions have started experiencing abnormal changes due to extreme weather variations and heavy rainfall. In some regions, extreme heat waves, a lack of rainfall and severe droughts have made the environment and people's lives unbearable. Global average warming is now about 1.5 degrees higher than during the industrial revolution in Europe.
Scientists fear that after 2050, the existence of life on Earth may be in jeopardy if we cannot control the rate of global warming. Right now, we need to take proper and appropriate steps in climate management; otherwise, these impacts will intensify day by day.
We expect a major change in rainfall patterns in addition to increased temperatures and heat waves due to climate change. However, some regions are likely to experience more droughts in the future, which may push them towards desertification.
Keep updated, follow The Business Standard's Google news channelOther areas are expected to face the opposite problem: heavy rains and increased flooding. Sea level rise has the potential to cause complete loss of agricultural land in coastal areas as well as serious damage to biodiversity, soil, water, and the marine environment.
All of these factors related to climate change can seriously affect agricultural crop production, destroy agricultural land, and make farmers' struggles for survival more difficult.
Survival may become more difficult, especially for small and marginal farmers who produce more than a third of the world's food. According to the UN's World Food Programme (WFP), around 333 million people in its 78 member countries will face 'acute' hunger in 2023, a huge change from 200 million before the COVID-19 pandemic.
However, increasing agricultural production and improving livelihoods in different areas affected by climate change is a major challenge. Bangladesh is a prime example of this in the global context of the climate crisis.
Under conditions of low crop productivity, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts a 15% increase in poverty in Bangladesh by 2030 due to climate change. If global warming continues at the current rate, then 17% of the country's population will have to relocate forcefully. Even 81% of migrant displacement in Dhaka City's slums is due to climate change.
Furthermore, the severity of climate change could lead to the internal displacement of 3 million to 10 million people in Bangladesh over the next 40 years. The World Bank data indicates that Bangladesh will incur costs of $121 billion between 2005 and 2050, or $3 billion annually, if it fails to take proper measures to address the climate crisis.
In 2009, the ruling government established a 'Climate Change Trust Fund' with its own funding, claiming multifaceted success in disaster management.
According to a variety of global reports, predictions of possible damage to Bangladesh due to climate change are becoming true one after another. Cyclone Aila devastated the entire coastal area of Bangladesh in 2009, following Cyclone Sidr's 2007 damage. Cyclone Rimal severely damaged 119 upazilas in 19 districts in the coastal areas of Bangladesh after a gap of several years.
The government has officially described the various ways in which the Remal rampage has affected and damaged about 46 lakh people in 934 unions under the 119 coastal upazilas. Besides, about 1,75,000 houses were destroyed in two consecutive days of the Remal rampage. Among them, 1,33,528 houses were partially destroyed. 40,338 were completely destroyed.
If the Sundarban had not served as a natural shield of Bangladesh, what would have been the extent of this damage?
Taking all these situations into consideration, World Environment Day is being celebrated in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, with the slogan 'Our Land, Our Future' in front. The country has focused on ' Land Restoration, Desertification, and Drought Resilience' as the main theme of Environment Day 2024, which has caught the attention of the entire world.
In keeping with the main theme of the United Nations Environment Programme, Bangladesh is celebrating World Environment Day nationwide under the slogan "Korbo Bhumi Punruddhar, Rukhbo Morumoyota, Arjan Korte Hobe Modern Khara Shahanshilata."
Two-thirds of the world's population now belongs to the G20 countries, which control 85% of global GDP and occupy almost half of the world's total land area.
This year, we will observe the 30th 'Desertification and Drought Day' on 17 June , following World Environment Day on 5 June. It urges everyone to unite to protect the land for our legacy and future generations. Every second, the world erodes land equivalent to four football fields, resulting in an annual loss of about 100 million hectares.
This year, the theme of Environment Day, which originally focused on the need for land restoration, has expanded to include the issues of desertification and Drought Day.
The climate change crisis has evolved from a specific problem to a permanent global crisis. Even the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) consensus is that significant climate change has already occurred since the 1950s, and that global average surface air temperatures will likely increase by 0.4° to 2.6° Celsius in the second half of this century. If you close your eyes and think about the world's situation, you can make some guesses.
Climate change-related disasters have destroyed about 850,000 households and 250,000 hectares of cropland in Bangladesh, according to a 2022 report by the IPCC. Rice prices in Bangladesh increased by 30 percent between 2014 and 2021 due to crop production failure and agricultural land loss.
At the same time, cyclones, floods, river erosion, salinity intrusion, and drought are also causing crop failure in the southern part of Bangladesh. Furthermore, the extinction of fish and marine species, the loss of biodiversity in the Sundarbans, the destruction of houses, and the reduction of alternative sources of livelihood are all making the survival situation of coastal communities more difficult.
On the other hand, it is challenging to predict how the rate of degradation from desertification will change in the future because there isn't a single metric that can describe it. In addition, there are numerous socio-economic drivers that will contribute to this change. For example, population growth is likely to increase the number of people directly affected by desertification altogether. Projections indicate a 43% increase to 4 billion people living in drylands worldwide by 2050.
The impact of climate change on aridity is also quite complex. A warmer climate is generally more capable of evaporating moisture from the land surface, resulting in increased dryness in combination with potentially warmer temperatures. Meanwhile, April 2024 was the warmest April on record for the past 175 years.
Limiting global warming is therefore a key way to put some pause on future desertification. But is there any other solution to the contrary? The United Nations has declared the decade from January 2010 to December 2020 the "United Nations Decade to Combat Desert and Desertification." That decade was an ideal opportunity to make effective changes to secure the drylands' long-term capacity for human well-being.
However, what the world is experiencing clearly indicates that prevention is more effective than many cheap cure policies. Once the degradation process starts, it is difficult to stop.
Stopping desertification before it starts requires taking appropriate measures to prevent soil erosion, vegetation loss, overgrazing, and land mismanagement. All of this necessitates effective policymaking and coordinated efforts by individuals and governments to manage land and water resources on a large scale.
Even small-scale land mismanagement can lead to large-scale degradation, so the problem is quite complex and difficult to manage. Therefore, problem solving should include strategies that identify who 'wins' and who 'loses' and minimise claims for compensation or inequality.
However, in an era of increasing climate disasters, who knows how successful the call for this year's Environment Day and the goal of land restoration, desertification, and drought prevention will be? Around 33 million people around the world have lost their livelihoods as a result of the systematic violation of land rights by large foreign investors and national-level influentials.
Despite this, 2.5 billion people have been caring for half of the world's land for generations, with their identity and existence relying on it. Despite maintaining and tending this land for a long time, they still have no documented or recognized rights to it. No one takes their rights into consideration. But their contribution to dealing with every crisis and calamity, including climate change, is undeniable.
May the goals and objectives of this year's 52nd World Environment Day, organised worldwide, including in Bangladesh, be successful. At the same time, people in danger of losing their livelihood and land should get their rights back and be more motivated to deal with future climate disasters.
M M Mahbub Hasan is a banker and development researcher.He is currently a Senior Vice President at Prime Bank.
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and views of The Business Standard.
