S&P 500 will surge all the way to 6,000 in 2025 in ‘Roaring 2020s’ scenario, says Ed Yardeni (2024)

FAQs

What is the S&P 500 forecast for 2025? ›

Here's its new S&P 500 target. The rally in May has also forced one of Wall Street's most prominent bears to turn bullish and bump up his prediction of where equities will go next. Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's chief U.S. equity strategist, said he sees the S&P 500 climbing to 5,400 by the second quarter of 2025.

For CY 2025, analysts are projecting earnings growth of 14.1% and revenue growth of 5.8%. The forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 20.7. This P/E ratio is above the 5-year average of 19.2 and above the 10-year average of 17.8.

A recession in early 2025 could send the stock market tumbling 30%, strategist says. A recession by early next year could send stocks down 30%, says BCA strategist Roukaya Ibrahim. Continued unemployment and headwinds from China's limping economy will be drivers of a downturn.

Some Wall Street strategists have lifted their stock forecasts recently. Stocks have enjoyed quite a nice ascent in 2024, with the S&P 500 climbing 11.5% this year to 5,321. That tops the average full-year gain of 10.3% going back to 1983, according to Moneychimp.

Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research told CNBC on Wednesday that the S&P 500 could jump 26% through 2026 to 6,500. "I think this is a long-term bull market. I got still 5,400 by year-end and that was a pretty bold call a year ago, but right now that's looking pretty conservative, and why not more?" Yardeni said.

The S&P 500 has hit 20 intraday highs in 2024. As stocks climb higher many stock valuations may be stretched beyond their intrinsic value. But it's still possible to find great investment opportunities as the stock market hits new all-time highs.

Yardeni Research sees DJIA at 60,000, S&P 500 at 8000 by 2030 By Investing.com.

The historical average yearly return of the S&P 500 is 9.88% over the last 20 years, as of the end of April 2024. This assumes dividends are reinvested. Adjusted for inflation, the 20-year average stock market return (including dividends) is 7.13%.

S&P 500 5 Year Return is at 70.94%, compared to 85.38% last month and 57.45% last year. This is higher than the long term average of 45.28%.

Thus, we expect growth to eventually slow to 1.4% in terms of an annual average number in 2025, before accelerating again in 2026 through 2028 on the back of eventual Fed rate cuts. Now inflation, we do expect inflation to essentially return to normal this year. Our latest forecast is 2.2% for full-year 2024.

What is the stock market prediction for 2024? ›

The Big Money bulls forecast that the Dow Jones Industrial Average will end 2024 at about 41,231, 9% higher than current levels. Market optimists had a mean forecast of 5461 for the S&P 500 and 17,143 for the Nasdaq Composite —up 9% and 10%, respectively, from where the indexes were trading on May 1.

Summary. In the 32 years between February 1992 and April 2024 , the S&P 500 index (in EUR) had a compound annual growth rate of 10.80%, a standard deviation of 15.29%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.67.

Basic Info. S&P 500 3 Year Return is at 20.44%, compared to 32.26% last month and 43.16% last year.

Bottom Line. Since 1957, the S&P 500's average annual rate of return has been approximately 10.5% (through March 2023) and around 6.6% after adjusting for inflation.

The S&P Target Date 2030 Index is designed to represent a broadly derived consensus of asset class exposure and glide path for target date year 2030. The index allocates to equities and fixed income at varying levels, according to a pre-determined schedule related to the respective target date.